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Post COP27. Where to next?
There is hope, but … Dec 2022
There are those who would have us believe that exceeding 1.5C is now inevitable – a claim that suits those who want us to carry on consuming as we have been, perpetuating our reliance on fossil fuels and perpetuating their profits.
It’s true that unless we change course we will exceed 1.5C around 2031.
But none of this is inevitable. This is by no means our only path. One thing that all paths have in common, if we are to keep to 1.5C, is that we need to make substantial reductions this decade. One year and 40 GtCO2 on since last year’s assessment, there are still avenues left to us.
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The blue and green pathways in the figure illustrate that we have a chance to stay within 1.5C of warming (hover over image for interactive figure, and click to enlarge). Neither path is easy, but we make more substantial reductions early on the blue pathway, which makes it a less risky option. Since we will not have used up so much of our carbon budget by 2030, we avoid the need to make the steep, difficult and potentially impossible annual cuts of the green pathway from 2030, and we are left with more of our budget in 2040 for hard-to-remove emissions
So there is hope. We have a chance. But this relies on there being the will to bring about change.
Yet there is no discernable will to cut emissions substantially, or fast enough, in the actions of governments, fossil fuel corporations or the words of the COP27 agreement. And after 30 years of increasing emissions we no longer have time to wait.
When the world is collapsing about us, and those with the power who should be taking responsibility in this climate crisis are failing us, we have only ourselves and those around us left to do anything.
Action
We can join with others to effect local change, such as better public transport, cycle lanes, repair shops and rewilding and we can join protests. But what maximizes our power is if we also transform aspects of our everyday lives, as far as we can.
Emission cuts early this decade pay dividends later, as we saw in the figure above, and we can do it immediately without waiting for agreement or approval from others.
Every tonne of CO2 we do not emit is one tonne less in the atmosphere. Times that by half to one billion of us in North America and Western Europe (the wealthiest nations responsible for the majority of emissions) and we have an impact.
A further significant outcome of our actions, including our power as consumers to boycott goods and services, is that we also cut the grotesque profits of corporations that continue to harm our world for profit. In this way we shape the corporate policies of those in finance, industrial agriculture, oil and gas.
Growing numbers
In any climate strategy (be it protest, boycott, votes …), it’s the numbers that count. Pockets of activity can coalesce to form larger and larger groups capable of bringing about transformational change in social norms. In turn these can shape corporate strategy and match the power of the lobbyists that shape policies. And we can match their power if enough of us act. We can apply the pressure we need.
How we do this is not so easy. But one of the most fruitful ways of involving friends and colleagues is to talk and share experiences about the things that matter most to them in their everyday lives, and which happen to be important to the climate.
These might include better bus services, road safety for their children to walk or cycle to school, cheaper and healthier food options, a local repair shop that avoids yet another costly purchase. And we can talk to others about how our money in most bank accounts supports the fossil fuel industry, and how we personally avoided this by switching to an ethical bank.
Each of us
Who can do all this? Everyone. Some more than others, but each of us to the best of our ability. While the wealthiest nations need to reduce their emissions substantially, it is the wealthiest 10-30% within those nations, who are the biggest emitters, that can have the most impact individually. Although, collectively much of the remainder can also have an impact because we are many.
There are several reasons why it is also of benefit to the poorer 70% among the wealthy nations to act.
Actions that meet climate goals are often beneficial to us. Many things are cheaper and healthier such as eating mainly plant-based foods and active transport like walking and cycling. Growing food and rewilding our gardens provides much needed habitats for wildlife, but also benefits our mental well-being. Sharing tools, and buying clothes that last, save us money and reduces consumption.
But the real benefits are due to the lower-emitting poor being a majority, who, as a group, have little vested interest in maintaining the status quo. As a majority we have the capacity to coerce governments to introduce policies that benefit us all in a more equal way.
Examples include taxes on wealth, frequent flyers and private jets, and revoking expansion of airports and road building. These could help fund improved green spaces, better public transport, heat pumps to lower heating costs and home insulation.
Finally, by acting we take back control. We gain a sense of empowerment, which reduces feelings of helplessness and climate anxiety. We begin to see a different world is possible.
Outlook
We have an opportunity like no other. We have the chance to take part in defending hundreds of millions of people, a billion species and their habitats from annihilation.
With enough of us we can produce systemic change, and growing our numbers can originate in the changes we make in our everyday lives.
Once we have the numbers we can apply pressure in whatever way we choose – votes, protests, campaigns, citizens’ assemblies.
A key question is whether we have the will to do all we can, as soon as we can.
It is our choice whether we act in this climate emergency. But when the necessity arises (as it did during COVID-19), we can, and do, rise to the challenge. We just have to see that there is a necessity, and that we are not powerless.
There is hope if we act and do it quickly. The future is in our hands.
For more on this see Applying the brakes to climate breakdown.
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COP26 ‘progress’ – Dec 2021
This quote by Kevin Anderson, a climate scientist, (@KevinClimate), is an apt assessment of COP progress: “We are not making progress ….what we are doing is not stepping backwards quite as far as we otherwise would be.” More ▼
Repeated talk of ‘important steps forward’ or ‘progress’ at COP26 risks skewing perception of our current state. Our attention is drawn away from the massive scale of what has not been done, and how little time there is left.
Though it may make some of us feel better, it tends to induce an optimism and hope that is totally misplaced given our current trajectory. The ‘progress’ has happened before in Paris in 2015 and emissions have continued to rise.
This so-called path of ‘progress’ is the same path that has led us to this sorry state, with minor incremental steps, which we also had in Paris. The steps are similar.
Another batch of commitments, net zeros and promises of climate finance. There is the added prospect of a ‘Dialogue’ on loss and damage finance. And we get to do more of the same sooner – next year.
In a loop: we review, we wait, we talk of progress, we review, we wait …
And when the first mention of fossil fuels in a COP document is heralded as major progress, we need to ask ourselves: in what sense are we treating this as an emergency? How have we reached a point where our expectations have been so eroded that we are grateful for this?
So, what should we do? Facing up to the reality of our situation does not mean we have to be pessimistic or gloomy about the future. On the contrary, we can see what has gone wrong and what can be done to change it. It’s a way of moving forward; we learn from our mistakes.
When all bases are covered, we know that we have done everything we can for our future. Only then, as agents of change, will we be energised to move forward with hope and courage. This is a far cry from putting trust in a process that continues to fail to deliver.
So anytime we see or hear the positive comments on COP26, let us remind ourselves and others of our current situation:
Emissions have increased by 60% in the last 30 years, despite so-called ‘progress’. There is inadequate finance for the poorer nations to adapt and no money available for the loss and damage that they have already suffered.
So let us all start a new conversation, with hope based on reality.
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This decade – Nov 2021
The figure below shows pathways we might take to reduce our emissions. There are many variations, but one thing is common to all paths: if we do not do substantial reductions over this decade, it becomes difficult or impossible to keep to our carbon budget and 1.5C. More ▼
By overshooting our remaining carbon budget and 1.5C, we become dependent on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which are neither proven nor tested to work for large-scale removal of CO2. So we risk temperatures escalating with no adequate means to stop them.
We need drastic reductions now, to halve our emissions by 2030. Yet governments have already wasted the first year of this crucial decade, with emissions set to rise yet again. They are failing to look after the planet and its inhabitants..
Everyone is now needed. Collectively, half a billion of us in the richer countries of the world can have an impact on emissions, just as we did during Covid-19 restrictions.
We can also produce systemic change in governments, through large-scale societal change, whether we choose to apply the pressure through petitions, protests, votes or simply the threat of losing power when social norms have changed.
We can cut corporate profits of those that destroy our planet for profit by boycotts, and change corporate policy in the process.
At a personal level, by acting we take back control and we feel empowered. Those around us can feel emboldened to act since they are not alone. Through grassroots examples we foster change across communities so that, collectively, we can shift mountains.
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